Cipher News Cipher News

In the weeks since the dramatic shakeup in the presidential race after President Biden dropped out, polling has suggested a close contest for the White House, as it was in 2020.

So far, the top issues getting attention on the stump from Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are familiar: the economy, inflation, immigration, crime and international wars. Although climate and energy aren’t receiving as much attention, Cipher wanted to know if they might play a role in the election.

After all, the outcome of the race is likely to have a big impact on climate and energy.

There are signs the election could once again come down to the results in three critical swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With that in mind, Cipher took a close look at clean energy development in each of these key battlegrounds and what kind of role they have played in each state politically, economically and culturally. Especially if the margin of victory comes down to just a few thousand votes, as happened four years ago, every issue matters.

Michigan

Michigan is the poster child for the difference elections can make for clean energy. After more than a decade of slow progress promoting renewable energy, the state dramatically picked up the pace two years ago, when Democrats took control of both houses of the state legislature and the governorship simultaneously for the first time since 1983.

With Republicans in the minority after the 2022 election, the newly-Democratic state legislature began working on comprehensive climate and renewable energy plans supported by Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Michigan’s Clean Energy Future package of laws sets a goal of producing 100% clean energy by 2040, with an interim goal of 50% by 2030 — up from the current 15% in the state today.

According to the Clean Investment Monitor, a joint project of the research firm Rhodium Group and Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, $15.2 billion has been invested in clean technologies and infrastructure in Michigan since the IRA was passed in 2022.

State leaders have embraced efforts by Detroit automakers and other companies to secure funding from the federal government to set up battery plants, boost the production of electric cars and build renewable energy projects. The number of local governments with renewable energy goals, or considering adopting them, has doubled since 2019, according to a recent University of Michigan survey.

But clean energy efforts remain controversial in a state deeply divided along partisan lines. A battery factory project by a Chinese-owned company in west Michigan has been delayed by a new majority in local government, while the size of some solar power projects has alarmed even some renewable energy advocates.

Meanwhile, like a lot of states (liberal and conservative leaning alike), Michigan has actually increased its share of natural-gas electricity over the past decade, going from 11% in 2010 to 34% in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

More than half of Michigan registered voters in a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said the state’s economy is on the wrong track despite the uptick in clean energy spending. And especially in its core auto industry, many workers remain nervous about a surge in electric vehicles threatening their jobs. — Bill Spindle

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, with its abundant and cheap natural gas and coal, voters are unlikely to factor clean energy initiatives into their choice for president unless those policies are tied to lower energy bills.

“Various energy related themes will resonate with some in-play voters, especially if those themes are tied to broader questions about inflation, cost of living, energy affordability and electricity prices,” said Jeremy Weber, a professor of energy and environmental economics at the University of Pittsburgh’s Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs.

Each candidates’ stance on fossil fuels could prove more important to some voters on election day than progress on clean energy. The EIA’s ranking of Pennsylvania as the nation’s second largest producer of natural gas and the third largest coal producer is reflected in the Harris campaign’s statement that she would not ban fracking; she had supported a ban on the practice when she ran for president in 2020. Fossil fuel industries are responsible for at least 120,000 jobs in the state, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

But Pennsylvania’s popular governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro, has introduced a series of initiatives aimed at boosting clean energy, including one that would increase Pennsylvania’s decades-old renewables goal from 8% currently to 35% by 2030. That proposal is being considered by a divided state legislature.

The Biden administration also recently announced that two of its multi-state hydrogen hubs will include all or part of Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has received $7.4 billion in government and private sector funding to drive clean investment since the IRA was passed, according to the Clean Investment Monitor.

Concern is also growing among Pennsylvanians about climate-fueled downpours and heat waves, Peter Buck, Co-director of Penn State’s Climate Action Program, told Cipher. He cited an August 8 poll by a coalition of environmental groups showing more than three quarters of respondents back wind and solar use, with nearly half strongly supporting it.

Whether any of this translates into votes is another question, however. — Amena H. Saiyid

Wisconsin

For much of the past decade, Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin have hampered the progress of clean energy in the state.

“Things like renewable energy that tend to be more pushed by politicians on the left really haven’t gotten anywhere in the last ten years in Wisconsin,” Greg Nemet, professor of public affairs at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, told Cipher.

Partly as a result of that dynamic, Wisconsin still gets the vast majority of its energy from fossil fuel-based sources (although it has started to shift away from coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, in recent years). In 2023, just 9% of the electricity generated in the state came from renewable sources, according to the EIA, compared to more than 21% in the United States overall.

But the landscape is shifting, potentially ushering in a friendlier future for clean energy in the Badger State as voters focus more on climate and energy issues.

Democratic Governor Tony Evers defeated two-term Republican governor Scott Walker in 2018 and a year later signed an executive order establishing a goal of 100% carbon-free electricity in Wisconsin by 2050. Newly redrawn legislative maps in the state might also push the state’s legislature more to the left, giving a boost to issues like clean energy.

A recent poll showed bipartisan concern about climate change, with more than half of both Republican and Democratic voters in Wisconsin characterizing it as a “quite” or “extremely big” problem.

According to the Clean Investment Monitor, a total of $3.7 billion has been invested in clean technologies and infrastructure in Wisconsin since the IRA was passed.

Maria Redmond, director of the Wisconsin Office of Sustainability and Clean Energy, has noticed more interest in renewables and clean energy from both sides of the aisle recently — if for different reasons. On the left, state lawmakers are likely to talk more about climate change, health and social justice. On the right, lawmakers show interest for economic reasons and energy independence, she told Cipher.

“I think we are seeing this transition in the state, slowly but surely,” Redmond told Cipher. — Cat Clifford