The world’s energy mix will be transformed over the next 30 years, but current laws and pledges still would result in a global temperature rise of 2.3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to the DNV report.
That would far exceed the Paris ambitions and enters territory scientists have warned could be catastrophic for humans and nature.
The report considers commitments to the Paris deal, current laws and pledges to reach net-zero emissions. It then compares those positions to track records of successful implementation in the past to determine likelihood of future follow-through, according to Mats Rinaldo, senior principal researcher at DNV.
Progress toward reductions vary significantly around the world, though the story remains largely the same: reductions aren’t coming fast enough.